About - Methodology
TL;DR
No odds. No expert picks. Just verifiable football data. Every match prediction on this site is built from scratch using results, player profiles, injury reports, tactical systems, and referee statistics. We archive every source and review our accuracy after each match.
Why This Exists
Most football predictions are built on betting markets and media consensus. This project does the opposite. Every analysis starts from raw football data and builds its own probability model — no sportsbook odds, no pundit aggregators, no prediction markets.
The goal is simple: can pure football analysis outperform the market?
Core Principles
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No betting odds or expert picks — Sportsbook odds, prediction markets (Kalshi, Polymarket), and media pundit predictions are ignored entirely. They reflect market sentiment, not football reality.
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Verifiable data only — Every claim traces to a specific source: match results, squad announcements, injury reports, tactical descriptions, referee statistics.
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Own the prediction — Probability rankings are built from raw analysis, not aggregated from others' predictions.
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Archive everything — All source articles are saved for post-event review. Sources are rated on quality and tracked for accuracy over time.
What Goes Into Each Analysis
Team Assessment
- Recent results (last 10-15 matches), goals for/against, clean sheets
- Full 26-man squad profiles: club, league, age, caps, goals
- Starting XI predictions from multiple regional sources
- Injuries, fitness, and availability (including local-language sources)
Tactical Analysis
- Formations and pressing style (high/medium/low block)
- Transition approach (direct, possession, counter-attacking)
- Set-piece threat and known weaknesses
Referee Profiling
- Card statistics by competition (domestic vs international)
- Penalty award rate and VAR interaction history
- Major controversies and crew composition
- Sympathy/bias assessment based on confederation ties
Context
- Venue (home/neutral/away), weather, crowd factor
- Tournament group math and historical significance
- Local-language media from both teams' countries
Report Types
| Type | What It Covers | When |
|---|---|---|
| Pure Football Analysis | Full pre-match breakdown with scenario probabilities | Before kickoff |
| Live Match Report | Real-time reassessment based on match events | During the match |
| Post-Event Review | Prediction accuracy, referee profile validation, lessons learned | After full-time |
| Predictions Summary | Cumulative accuracy tracker across all matches | Rolling |
How Predictions Work
Each match produces 5 ranked scoreline scenarios with estimated probabilities that sum to ~100%. Every scenario is justified by specific evidence — not gut feeling.
After each match, a post-event review compares:
- Predicted vs actual lineups (which sources were most accurate?)
- Score prediction vs actual result
- Referee behavior vs pre-match profile
- Which key variables actually materialized
- What the analysis missed
Source Strategy
Sources are searched in both teams' local languages, not just English. Bosnian/Croatian sources provided lineup scoops for Canada vs BiH that were unavailable in any English outlet. Spanish-language sources uncovered the USA-Paraguay brawl narrative.
All sources are archived in a structured directory (sources/matches/{match}/) and rated for quality post-event.
Early Results
Canada vs. Bosnia & Herzegovina (Jun 12, 2026) — First validated match:
- Score: 1-1 Draw (predicted as 3rd most likely at 18%)
- Both scoring mechanisms predicted correctly: Bosnia via set piece (Lukic header, 21'), Canada via bench impact (Larin, 78')
- Referee Tello profile matched exactly: 5 yellows, 0 reds, 0 penalties, permissive style
- Lineup predictions: 86% accurate (19/22 correct)
- 8 out of 11 specific predictions correct (73% hit rate)
- Pure football analysis outperformed market consensus, which had heavily favored a Canada win
Who Runs This
This is an independent football analysis project for the 2026 FIFA World Cup. No affiliations with bookmakers, media outlets, or football governing bodies.
Methodology last updated: June 12, 2026